Surge Upside the Head
That’s what the Bush needs, a big surge upside the head.
The president gave a speech last night to the nation about why he thinks sending 21,500 additional troops to Iraq is a good idea. He thinks this will stabilize Iraq allowing him to achieve is objectives for starting the war in the first place. Most Americans are opposed to this plan and democrats plan to block the funds required to send the additional troops to Iraq.
So what are his real objectives? Get his friends rich of course! Bush and Cheney have strong ties to the Oil and Gas industry. Haliburton the company that Cheney used to be in charge of and continues to receive financial compensation from, received 3.9 billion in no bid contracts during which time 1.8 billion was lost or not accountable. Not much is being done about it either. This is just one of many problems caused by Bush Co. while in office, no wonder his approval rating is 30%.
Oily Politics
The real objective in Iraq is Oil, all the fabricated stories about WMD’s was used to fool and confuse the American public about what our presidents real intentions where. So why is he so concerned about Oil in Iraq? Money for one reason. The American Oil and Gas companies stand to make $3.125 trillion from the oil reserves in Iraq.
The other reason and why they don’t talk about this, is that we are running out of Gas and no not the end of cheap gas, the end of all Gas. Lets do the math together. According to the Society of Petroleum Engineers, the guys whose job it is to go and find the Oil and Gas, the global reserves to be 1.27 trillion barrels of Oil, including Iraq. According to the Department of Energy the global reserves are as much as 1.292 trillion barrels. We will use the larger number.
So how much Oil do we use every year to fuel our cars, busses and industrial vehicles. In 2003 the Energy Information Administration estimated world wide Oil consumption to be 80 million barrels per day. They also said that in North America we use 24 million barrels per day. So lets do some math to figure out how much that is a year.
80 million per day * 365 = 29.2 billion per year
24 million per day * 365 = 8.76 billion per year
The bad news that demand for Oil is only going to rise in future as China and India start industrializing. We may be able to cut back in the United States, but that isn’t going to make a difference unless we can provide the rest of the world with a viable alternative to an economy based on the supply of Oil and Gas.
Lets do some more math to figure out how much time we got left. This will provide us with a minimum amount of time because we are ignoring the fact that as supply goes down price will go up and consumption will decrease. Lets even give the geologists the benefit of the doubt and say there is 11% of the total known Oil and Gas reserves that have left to be discovered. (11% of 1.292 trillion) + 1.292 trillion = 1.434 trillion. We will use this number for our first calculations.
1.434 trillion / ( 29.2 billion per year) = 49 years
1.434 trillion / (8.76 billion per year) = 163.6 years
Neconseratives listen up, this means if even if we took over the rest of the world and banned the use of Oil and Gas execpt if your a US citizen, we would still run out in 163 years. So much for that idea, eh? Go back to your video games if you want to expand the American empire because it isn’t going to happen in real life.
Don’t forget that we have already added in the Iraq Oil into the total known reserves. There is 112.5 billion barrels of Oil in Iraq, so that means if 100% of Iraqi Oil were consumed in the United States it would only provide us with enough to last 12.8 years. Realistically it will only provide the world with enough Oil to last 3 years! The Oil men know this and they don’t care, for them it is all about the money. They will sell and sell until they run out, who cares about alternatives when your making the most money you have ever made. It is up to ourselves the consumers to find a different way of doing things and find the answer soon, because as you can see we don’t have much time left.
Iraq For The Win … Not
So what should we really be doing about Iraq? We should be leaving that’s what. Not sending more troops. The cost of American lives and dollars isn’t worth it. We shouldn’t pay for Bush’s mistake. He is responsible for destabilizing the country when we disposed Saddam and executed him. Democracy in Iraq is a foolhardy dream that isn’t going to happen. Democracy only works if the people want it to happen and the only reason the Islamic people in Iraq might say they do is because we have 150,000 American troops occupying their country telling them that they want a Democracy.
The current situation is like occupying West Germany with Hitler in power in East Germany and expecting the German people to Democratize because we tell them its a good idea. If I were in that situation, I wouldn’t listen to the crazy Americans either. In Iraq it is a little more complicated than that. There are two types of Muslims in Iraq, Sunni and Shi’a. The Sunni are the same type as are in Saudi Arabia while the Shi’a are the same type as found in Iran. As you probably know we are “friends”, more like business partners, with the Saudis and with Iran not so much. There are no official figures but the estimated proportions of Iraqis is something like Shi’a 60% and Sunni 40%.
The fear is that if we leave Iraq now it will erupt into chaos and possible civil war. Well if we haven’t solved the problem now after killing over 50,000 out of 28 million Iraqi people I don’t think we are going to solve it by killing another 50,000. The problem is Iran and their funding of insurgency in Iraq. We have better things to do than fight with Iran over Iraq. What to do about Iran is another issue all together. It is certainly clear we can’t properly deal with both problems at once as are trying now.
I am not saying we should leave Iraq and forget about them that would be rude and they are our homies right??? Well we can certainly provide them advice as what to do if they want it. After all that’s what email is for! We can also provide them financial help after they have stabilized their own country. I propose that we withdraw the majority of our troops, save maybe our biggest military base and of course keep the military bases we had in Saudi Arabia and the surrounding region before the war. It is the best thing for our troops too because it means the majority of them get to come home! That means that if the yellow ribbon on your bumper, next to your W’04 sticker, is any indication of your support for our troops you should not have supported George Bush and should not have voted Republican. Don’t worry you can make up for it in the next election, assuming the whole thing isn’t rigged of course.
So after we leave what is the most likely thing that will happen? Well some people think that Saudi Arabia and Iran will go to war. I don’t think this is likely but if it did, and saying that is like if Aliens attacked, than yes gas prices would go through the roof. Saudi’s supply 20% of worlds known reserves with 261.9 billion barrels. Well the price is going to go up sooner or later and I don’t think its really going to happen because defending Saudi Arabia is a much better idea than attacking Iran. Hey Saudi Arabia, we got your back!
What I think will happen is Iran will keep pushing its people in Iraq enough so that the Democracy falls apart. I think when that happens or before we should have a sit down with Iran and Saudi Arabia and talk about splitting up the country. Texas Holdem anyone? During these talks we could even talk with Iran about their little nuclear problem, no soup for you!
Splitting up a destabilized Iraq is the best solution. It makes everyone happy and avoids conflict. It is the fastest method to a stable Middle East which is what we want because remember we are there for their Oil. The bad news is American Oil companies would miss out, but they will get over it and it is better than a prolonged occupation costing trillions of dollars. If Iraq can somehow stabalize and start rebuilding themseleves all the while fending off 60% of their population attacking the other 40% while trying to prevent influence on its own citizens from Iran, than great, good for them. Its probably going to take a while.
Not that I think that any of this will happen in Iraq. Bush will continue with his agenda of victory at any cost while lying to the American public. Until we get someone credible in office nothing good will come of the Middle East. Hopefully the Democrats and the few smart Republicans in Congress can stave off any more disasters for another year. If things continue as they are in 50 years, when your kids are your age, and the Gas runs out I’ll be old and senile saying I told you we shoulda fixed it in 2008.
Sources
- http://alternet.org/waroniraq/19620/
- http://www.llbbl.com/2006/09/05/end-of-oil-and-gas/
- http://iraqforsale.org/facts.php
- http://lautenberg.senate.gov/documents/domestic/financialties.pdf
- http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0403-10.htm
- http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/12heart.htm
- http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm
- http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic/0,,1104_1008218_1109511,00.html
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq
- http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/09/28/iraq.iran/index.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_U.S._presidential_election_controversy_and_irregularities
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/saudi.html
- http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/running.htm
- http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf
